After the recent military escalation in the city of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur State, there has been a large mobilization of Rapid Support Forces on the city’s borders since late April. As a result, the frequency of UN international warnings has increased Regarding the spread of violence towards the city, which is a center for humanitarian assistance in Darfur. These warnings have pointed To the danger of the spread of a new wave of tribal conflicts in the region.
Between June 2023 and March 2024, 7 Sudanese states experienced violent incidents of a tribal nature, as monitored by Insights.
This report aims to analyze and document recent events, identify the key individuals and groups involved, provide an analysis of the human impact of these tribal conflicts, and illustrate the patterns of escalation and de-escalation of these events.
It is crucial to study violent tribal events in Sudan due to their significant impact on the country’s political and social stability. These events have far-reaching effects on various aspects of society and cannot be dismissed as minor local conflicts. Understanding the origins and dynamics of these conflicts can help in developing effective reconciliation and settlement strategies, as well as in building sustainable peace in affected areas.
Theoretical Framework: Conflict and Dispute
According to political science professor Walid Al-Drouzi, conflict can be distinguished from war by the fact that conflict is less intense and more inclusive than war. Conflict is typically defined as “a disagreement between two or more nations over specific questions or issues, and can arise between individuals and groups within a single state.” On the other hand, war is “the clash of national and international wills, or the clash of the great wills.” Based on this distinction, violent events of a tribal nature can be classified as “tribal conflicts.”
Tribal Clashes
Disputes are classified According to several criteria, with the most prominent being:
- Content criterion: such as national, ethnic, sectarian, and tribal conflicts, or political, legal, geographical, or ideological conflicts.
- The criterion of the awareness of the parties, such as the latent conflict and the apparent conflict.
- The criterion of the number of parties: a bilateral dispute or a multiple dispute.
- Level criterion: According to this criterion, there are local and international disputes (regional or global).
- Interaction criterion: such as diplomatic conflicts, non-institutional conflicts, and armed conflicts.
He says, “Describing a conflict as ethnic or tribal means that the contradiction and difference in interests between two or more parties are ethnic or tribal.” The international relations specialist, Michael Brown defines ethnic conflict as “a conflict between two countries or several ethnic groups over important claims and disagreements related to economic, political, social or regional issues. Ethnic conflict or war is a form of organized violence in which groups and values are measured in the language of ethnicity.”
Causes of tribal conflict in Darfur:
Darfur is a region that has experienced severe ethnic conflicts in Sudan since the beginning of the current century. These conflicts have had a significant impact on Sudan and its Arab and African neighbors. Map No. 1 shows that the majority of tribal conflicts in Sudan during this period are concentrated in the Darfur region.
To summarize, The most prominent causes of tribal conflict in Darfur are the following:
- Natural factors and significant environmental variations exist among the regions where the residents practice pastoralism.
- Conflict over land and pasture.
- The Darfur region is governed by a tribal system and consists of over 115 tribes out of the 570 Sudanese tribes.
- Tribal overlap with the neighboring countries, proliferation of weapons, and the inability of these countries to control their borders.
- Marginalization, lack of development, and misallocation of resources exist between Darfur and the rest of the country and within the Darfur region itself.
- The removal of the local administration in the region, which was run by powerful men trained by the late Sudanese President Jaafar Nimeiri’s government, created a significant void in local political and social life that the state could not fill.
- The army of the Central African Republic disintegrated, and most of its fighters entered Darfur, where the majority of them were from Sudanese tribes.
- The sociocultural structure of the social organization in Darfur is fragile because it is a rural community with 80% of the population having low levels of education and high illiteracy rates.
- The conflict in Darfur and Sudan as a whole has been influenced by the regional and international environment. Regional actors have played a role in this ethno-tribal conflict. This includes the impact of deteriorating security in neighboring countries, as well as the extension of tribal ties from Darfur into neighboring countries.
Analysis of events of the tribal nature in Sudan
In the analysis of violent tribal incidents, the team mainly relied on data provided by Insights. The data collected by the organization was analyzed between June 2023 and March 2024.
The analysis involved categorizing observed events into four basic types:
- Armed conflicts: ( Insights ) Armed conflict is defined as a clash between two parties at a specific time and place, provided that the parties involved are armed. These parties can be government forces or organized armed groups with political agendas, identities, or goals, and they use weapons to achieve these objectives.
- Violence against civilians: (Insights) Defined as violent incidents in which an organized entity deliberately perpetrates violence against unarmed persons who are not engaged in acts of organized violence. This can include government forces, insurgents, militias, and foreign armed groups as perpetrators.
- Civilian violence: Insights Defines civilian violence as the deliberate use of physical force or power, typically without the use of firearms. In most cases, civilians are the victims when two civilian groups clash using weapons and other armaments. To classify an event as violence between civilians, it is crucial to establish that the area is not experiencing armed conflict at the time of the event.
- Ceasefire/Tribal Reconciliation Agreements.
Figure 1 shows the number of events mentioned between June 2023 and March 2024, a total of thirty-eight events were recorded. The most common type of incidents were armed conflicts, accounting for eighteen occurrences, followed by incidents of violence between civilians with ten cases and incidents of violence against civilians with five incidents. Additionally, there were five other types of incidents recorded during this period.
Figure No. «1»
Map 1 shows the distribution of the mentioned events in the different states of Sudan. Events were distributed among the states as follows:
- South Darfur: 12 incidents
- South Kordofan: 6 incidents
- North Darfur: 6 incidents
- West Darfur: 6 incidents
- Gadaref: 2 incidents
- North Kordofan: 2 incidents
- Blue Nile: 1 incident
- West Kordofan: 1 incident
- Central Darfur: 1 incident
Map No. «1»
Classification of sub-events and victims
Figure 2 shows the subcategories of the four basic events mentioned earlier. This part aims to provide a clearer perception of the nature of the main events.
- Armed conflicts were divided into three sections (battles, raids, and ambushes): 18 battles, two raids, and one ambush were observed.
- Incidents of violence against civilians were divided into (incidents of deliberate killing of civilians and incidents of looting): Four incidents of deliberate killing of civilians and one looting incident were monitored.
- Civilian violence was divided into (civilian clashes): 10 civilian clashes were monitored.
- The other incidents were divided into (Tribal Reconciliation and ceasefire Agreements): (4) Tribal Reconciliation Agreements and one Ceasefire Agreement were monitored.
Figure No. «2»
The distribution of armed conflict and violence against civilians between June 2023 and March 2024 is depicted in Figure 3. The figure indicates that the highest number of armed conflicts took place in October and November 2023, with four conflicts occurring in each of these two months. When comparing Figure 3 and Figure 4, which display the number of deaths during this period, we observe that November had the second-highest number of victims, totaling 167, and October had the third-highest number, totaling 160. However, it is important to note that the increase in the number of armed conflicts per month does not always result in a rise in the number of deaths. For example, in August 2023 and February and March 2024, there were two armed conflicts each month. Yet, the number of victims in August 2023 reached a total of 204 (the highest number of victims during this period), which is four times greater than the combined total of victims in June, February, and March, which reached 52 victims.
The team at Beam Reports researched to understand why some tribal conflicts are more violent than others. After analyzing various incidents, they found that conflicts involving the Al-Salamat tribe resulted in a higher number of casualties compared to other conflicts. For example, the conflict between the Salamat tribe and the Habbaniya tribe led to 389 victims across seven separate armed conflicts during the specified period. Similarly, the conflict between the Salamat tribe and the Beni Halba tribe resulted in 124 victims during two armed conflicts within the same period.
Figure No. «3»
Figure No. «4»
Analysis The Actors
In Figure 5, we can see the main actors involved in the observed events and the interactions between them, along with the number of incidents that occurred between these actors. From the figure, it’s clear that the conflict between the Salamat and Habbaniya tribes was the most frequent between June 2023 and March 2024. There were eight clashes between the Salamat tribe and the Habbaniya tribe during this period, resulting in the majority of the victims of tribal conflicts in Darfur. Additionally, the Salamat tribe had two conflicts with the Beni Halba tribe, while the Habbani tribe had a single clash with an unidentified tribe. The figure also includes information about the monitoring of:
- There have been two incidents of violence between civilians involving the Kuwahla tribe and the Hawazma tribe.
- An incident of violence occurred between the Hawazma tribe and the Nuba tribe.
- An armed conflict has erupted between the Habbaniya tribe and another unspecified tribe.
- There was an armed conflict between the Zaghawa tribe and the Gammar tribe.
- There was an armed conflict between the Misseriya tribe and the Hamar tribe.
- Two armed conflicts occurred between the Rapid Support Forces and an armed group affiliated with an ethnic group allegedly from the Aranga tribe.
- An armed group affiliated with the Zaghawa carried out a violent attack on civilians in the market of the city of Tine (الطينة).
- In addition to «8» different incidents carried out by unidentified local armed groups.
In addition to the violent events, Figure 4 monitored tribal reconciliation agreements and a ceasefire agreement between:
- Signing a tribal reconciliation agreement between the Fur tribe and components of the Baggara tribes.
- Signing a tribal reconciliation agreement between the Salamat tribe and the Barqu tribe.
- Signing a tribal reconciliation agreement between the Araki tribe and the Rikabiya tribe.
- The signing of a tribal reconciliation agreement between the Abyei Dinka tribe and the Rizeigat tribe in Qara.
- Civil administrations in Mellit locality have also signed a ceasefire agreement to ensure peaceful coexistence following clashes between citizens and members of the joint force of the armed movements.
Figure No. «5»
